UCP Policy: Premier Smith's Support Surges Amidst Health Care Crisis

CALGARY, AB — Premier Danielle Smith's United Conservative Party has clawed back six points of support since October 2025, reversing a year-long slide and turning what looked like a slow bleed into a political comeback, according to Leger's latest Alberta report card released this week.

The UCP's rise comes as two fault lines crack wide open across the province: a healthcare system in full transformation and a separatist petition now circulating streets and social media feeds. Both are moving numbers. Both are moving votes.

The Comeback

Support for Smith's government had been trending south since January 2025, a slow erosion that had Opposition Leader Naheed Nenshi's NDP camp smelling opportunity. Not anymore. The six-point UCP surge lands just as the province enters the most polarizing stretch of policy reform since Smith took office.

The NDP, meanwhile, dropped two points. Nenshi's momentum has stalled.

Health Care Moves to the Top

Here's the shift that matters: healthcare jumped from 17% to 27% as the most important issue for Albertans between October 2025 and January 2026. It's now the single loudest voice in the room.

That timing isn't random. On December 18, 2025, the UCP passed Bill 11—the Health Statutes Amendment Act—making Alberta the first province to legislate a "dual practice" framework for physicians and crack open the door to private insurance for medically necessary services. Budget 2025 backed it with $28 billion in health operating expenses, a 5.4% bump that includes $644 million for primary care and $7 billion for physician compensation.

Critics have been loud. A February 2026 report from the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives and Parkland Institute warned Bill 11 could birth a two-tier healthcare system. The Alberta Medical Association flagged that physician budgets still aren't keeping pace with demand. And the federal government—under Prime Minister Mark Carney—remains a looming presence, with the Canada Health Act hanging over every reform Alberta tries to push through.

Smith's bet is that Albertans want speed and options. The poll suggests she may be winning that argument, at least for now.

The Separatist Question

The second driver is louder in tone but murkier in mass appeal: the push to hold a referendum on Alberta leaving Canada.

Elections Alberta approved the Alberta Prosperity Project's petition in December 2025. Signature collection started January 3, 2026. The target: 177,732 verified signatures by May 2, 2026, to trigger an October 2026 referendum. The APP's campaign has divided not just the province but the UCP itself.

Former Premier Jason Kenney publicly stated the UCP caucus has "no business" signing the petition, citing the party's founding commitment to a strong Alberta within a united Canada. Former MLA Thomas Lukaszuk launched Alberta Forever Canada in 2025 to counter the separatist wave. Yet Smith has kept her autonomy push front and center, withholding funding for new federal judicial appointments in February 2026 unless Alberta gains more input in the selection process.

The December 2025 Alberta Next Panel Report—chaired by Smith—recommended ditching the RCMP and holding a province-wide vote on quitting the Canada Pension Plan. A referendum on some of those ideas is expected in 2026.

The Friction

This isn't a single-issue bounce. It's a compound effect: healthcare reform energizing the UCP base while separatist rhetoric keeps the conversation centered on Alberta autonomy. The NDP is caught trying to defend federal collaboration while fighting a government that's framing Ottawa as the enemy.

The UCP also out-raised the NDP in 2025—$9.3 million to $6.3 million—giving Smith's team the fuel to keep driving the message through an election cycle that now feels closer than it did three months ago.

What's Next

The APP has until May 2 to hit its signature threshold. Budget 2025 is delivering $3.6 billion over three years for healthcare capital projects. And the UCP is staring down a potential $8.7 billion deficit if tariffs hit worst-case scenarios.

Nenshi needs to find a wedge. Smith needs to keep the momentum rolling without letting the separatist wing hijack the party's center. And Albertans are watching to see if Bill 11 delivers faster care or just faster bills.

The poll is a snapshot. The next six months will decide if it's a trend.