The Real Cost of an Independent Alberta: What Calgarians Should Know

A recent analysis paints a stark picture for an independent Alberta, suggesting significant economic headwinds that Calgarians would feel directly. Economist Trevor Tombe's study, highlighted in The Hub, reveals potential repercussions like reduced trade and increased costs.

Imagine trade costs between Alberta and the rest of Canada jumping by just 5%; Tombe's analysis indicates our province's economy could shrink by approximately 4%, amounting to a staggering $20 billion in lost economic activity. An 8% increase in non-tariff barriers could see the economy shrink by 6%, or $30 billion. Beyond the numbers, productivity would likely decline.

This isn't just about abstract figures. For Calgarians, already navigating a city where the cost of living is 14% higher than the rest of Canada in 2024 and rental prices for a two-bedroom unit averaged $2,108 per month in December 2023, these shifts could mean higher living expenses. Our energy-driven economy is a key driver for Calgary's current prosperity, with Alberta's energy sector contributing $139 billion to the province's energy production value in 2024.

The study also forecasts an exodus of around 400,000 people—8% of Alberta's population—seeking opportunities elsewhere. Calgary's population surged by 95,784 people in 2023, putting immense strain on housing, infrastructure, and public services. A significant population decline would further strain public services already stretched by recent growth.

While Alberta is known for its resilience and innovation, particularly as Calgary's economy is forecast to lead the country in GDP growth for 2025, this report suggests independence could hinder progress. For a city where economic stability is paramount, these findings underscore the need for cautious consideration before any drastic political changes.