Calgary's Unstoppable Momentum: Riding the Economic Rollercoaster of 2025
The Gist: Calgary, A City Against the Current
As 2025 winds down, Calgary finds itself in a fascinating and somewhat defiant economic position, largely charting its own course amidst national and global currents. While the rest of Canada has seen population growth cool, our city and province have been a magnet, drawing in new residents at a pace unseen elsewhere. This influx has ignited a historic housing boom, propelled Alberta onto the global energy stage with new LNG exports, and even positioned us as a dark horse contender in the power-hungry AI data centre race. It’s been a year of remarkable resilience and aggressive expansion, but not without its share of white-knuckle moments and simmering challenges.
What This Means for You: Dollars, Doors, and Deerfoot Delays
For the everyday Calgarian, this whirlwind year translates directly into your daily life and your bottom line. That surging population, making Alberta the only province to see significant growth in the third quarter of 2025, means more demand for everything. You've likely felt it: in the hunt for a family home, the competition for rentals, or perhaps even a longer wait at your favourite coffee shop. The good news? Our city is trying to keep up. Alberta is on track to smash its housing starts record, projecting an estimated 55,000 new homes in 2025, eclipsing the previous high from 2006. This building frenzy, particularly in multi-family and rental units supported by programs like CMHC's MLI Select, is a direct response to putting more roofs over heads.
Beyond housing, new industries are stirring. The province's strategic position for AI data centres, thanks to our abundant natural gas and cooler climate, is promising new high-tech jobs, though the Alberta Electric System Operator (AESO) has had to put interim caps on new grid connections, pushing some projects to "bring your own power." This pivot not only signals future job opportunities but also highlights the pressing need for robust infrastructure investment. And if you’ve been sticking closer to home, you’re not alone. With Canadians nationwide scaling back U.S. travel by 25% year-to-date, our local tourism scene has absolutely soared, with international visitors to Alberta jumping an impressive 25% in Q2 2025 alone. This means more vibrancy in our communities and jobs in hospitality, with the provincial government even designating Nakiska, Castle, and Fortress as new all-season resorts to keep those tourism dollars flowing.
The Flip Side: Navigating the Headwinds and Hidden Costs
While the headlines shout growth, a closer look reveals persistent pressures. That record-breaking housing construction? It’s still playing catch-up to the unprecedented influx of people, meaning housing affordability remains a tight squeeze for many Calgarians. Despite the cranes dotting the skyline, navigating rental costs and home prices is a daily reality check, particularly for those on tighter budgets. Then there’s the enduring pain of U.S. protectionism. Even with Canada's general exemption from the broader 35% tariffs, specific sectors are getting hammered. Our softwood lumber industry, for instance, is wrestling with combined U.S. tariffs and duties exceeding a whopping 45%, forcing operations like West Fraser's High Level, Alberta facility to curtail production indefinitely. This isn't just an abstract industry problem; it means job uncertainty in resource communities and a stark reminder of our vulnerability to external trade disputes. And while new all-season resorts promise economic boons, there's always the environmental conversation, with wildlife advocates frequently raising concerns about increased human activity in sensitive areas like our beloved Kananaskis. It's a delicate balance between economic expansion and preserving the very natural beauty that draws people here.
The Bottom Line: Building a Future on Shifting Sands
Calgary's 2025 story is one of undeniable dynamism. We're an economic anomaly, attracting people and investment at a rapid clip, and showing remarkable ingenuity in diversifying our energy exports and embracing the AI revolution. Yet, this high-octane growth demands an equally high-stakes management strategy. How effectively will city hall and provincial leaders balance the urgent need for housing and infrastructure with the long-term liveability and environmental stewardship Calgarians demand? As we head into 2026, the question isn't just about how fast we grow, but how thoughtfully we build a future that works for everyone calling Calgary home.
