Calgary's Real Estate in 2026: 'Stabilization' or Just a Shaky Truce?
The Gist
Hold onto your hats, Calgarians. The frenetic pace of our city's real estate market, a consistent headline for the past few years, is reportedly gearing down. ATB Financial's inaugural 2026 Real Estate Outlook, 'The Twenty-Four,' suggests Alberta's property sector is shifting from rapid expansion to a period of 'healthy stabilization' next year. Authored by Neil Ternovatsky, AVP and Head of Real Estate at ATB Financial, the report paints a picture of moderation, as the market begins to absorb the significant new supply added during a period of unprecedented population growth in 2025.
What This Means for You
For the average Calgarian, this 'stabilization' is a mixed bag, a bit like finding a prime parking spot downtown, only to realize you left your wallet at home. If you're a renter, particularly eyeing the multi-family sector, there might be a silver lining. With a large volume of new supply hitting the market, ATB expects flat to slightly decreased average rents in 2026, especially during the first half of the year. That's a welcome pause after relentless increases, potentially offering a sliver of breathing room for those navigating Calgary's tight rental scene.
However, for aspiring homeowners, especially younger Calgarians, the path to ownership remains challenging. While Alberta's benchmark resale home price of $506,600 in November 2025 remains significantly lower than the national average (over $674,800), Calgary's aggregate home price is still projected to climb. Royal LePage forecasts a modest 1.5% increase to $701,061 by Q4 2026. This persistent appreciation, coupled with a growing labour force that has consistently outpaced job creation, means many new residents and younger workers face an uphill battle transitioning from renting to owning. Calgary's unemployment rate, for instance, reached 7.9% in November 2024, a jump from October and among the highest of major Canadian cities, reflecting a labour market struggling to keep pace with population influx.
Beyond your wallet, this rapid population growth—Alberta crossed the five million mark in mid-2025—is straining the very fabric of our city. Daily commutes on Deerfoot, public transit capacity, and even the reliability of utility systems (remember last summer's water main woes?) are feeling the pinch.
The Reality Check (Facts & Policy)
The City of Calgary hasn't been sitting on its hands. Its 'Home is Here' Housing Strategy (2024-2030), approved in September 2023, is explicitly designed to boost housing supply and affordability. And on paper, we're smashing targets. Calgary exceeded its Housing Accelerator Fund goals more than a year ahead of schedule, incentivizing 44,276 new units by July 2025 against a 2026 target of 42,667. This construction surge, largely favouring multi-unit developments, is precisely what ATB points to as key to stabilizing the market.
The Flip Side
While ATB's report heralds 'healthy stabilization,' it's crucial to acknowledge the deeper cracks beneath the surface. For one in five Calgary households, the housing crisis is far from 'stabilized'; they simply cannot afford where they currently live. Rents continue to climb faster than wages, and the dream of a starter home remains elusive for many. Furthermore, that unprecedented growth is testing the limits of our aging infrastructure. The city faces a significant infrastructure deficit, estimated at over $7 billion, with 7% of City assets, on average, in poor or very poor condition. The 2024 water main failure served as a stark, inconvenient reminder of the strain on public services not designed for such rapid expansion. And it's not just Calgary; municipal leaders across Southern Alberta are increasingly vocal about insufficient provincial funding to keep pace with growth-related infrastructure, leaving communities struggling to build and maintain the necessities.
The Bottom Line
Calgary's real estate market in 2026 is indeed settling into a more predictable rhythm, a testament to robust housing construction and underlying economic fundamentals. But while the pace may be moderating, the pressure on everyday Calgarians isn't necessarily easing. The narrative of 'stabilization' must contend with the lived reality of a persistent affordability crisis and an overburdened infrastructure, grappling with growth that outstrips its capacity. As our city continues to welcome new residents, the real challenge for 2026 isn't just building more homes, but ensuring that Calgary remains a livable, affordable, and well-serviced community for everyone who calls it home.
