Calgary's Defining Moment: Will We 'Execute' on Prosperity or Let Affordability Slip?
The Gist: Calgary's Comeback Kid Moment
Calgary, listen up. We've reached a pivotal moment. Remember those dark clouds of economic uncertainty that hung heavy over us just a year ago? The ones tied to global trade skirmishes and an unpredictable U.S. political scene? Well, according to the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index, those clouds have thinned considerably. The stage is set, as one economist put it, for us to "capture it? Or just let it slip?" echoing Eminem's iconic lyrics.
Our city and province are not just treading water; we're charting a course that outpaces the rest of Canada. Alberta's economy is projected to grow by a robust 2.1% in 2026 and 2.4% in 2027, a significant leap from the 0.5% scenario feared earlier this year. This surge is fueled by a potent cocktail: the Bank of Canada holding steady on interest rates, increased energy exports finding their way to overseas markets, a much-needed push in housing construction, and crucially, a lighter tariff burden thanks to CUSMA exemptions that keep Alberta's effective tariff rate below 2%. We’ve seen a remarkable 4.2% year-over-year surge in job creation this past November, a pace that leaves the national average of 1.1% in the dust.
Beyond the numbers, concrete signs of investment are emerging. Near Edmonton, Capital Power is proposing the Polaris @ Genesee Energy Campus, a massive 1.0 to 1.5 Gigawatt hyperscale data centre aiming to power the AI infrastructure boom by 2028. This isn't just a win for our provincial neighbours; it signifies a broader investment confidence in Alberta's energy and tech future, directly benefiting Calgary through supply chains and job opportunities.
What This Means for Your Wallet and Home
So, what does all this high-level economic talk boil down to for your daily grind in Calgary? Good news on the job front, for starters. The robust employment growth means more opportunities are out there, though experts anticipate this rapid pace will moderate slightly. For those looking to move or buy, a projected slowdown in our once-frenzied population growth is expected to help the housing market rebalance, potentially easing some of the intense competition we've seen. While overall housing prices are still forecast to increase by about 4% to an aggregate of $728,104 by Q4 2025, we're seeing a mixed market. Condos and row homes, for instance, have actually seen price declines of 6-7% year-over-year in November 2025 due to increased inventory, offering a glimmer of hope for buyers in those segments.
However, let's not sugarcoat it: the elephant in the room remains the ongoing cost-of-living crunch. Despite the positive growth projections, Calgarians are still grappling with persistent financial pressures. Our City Council, in approving the 2026 budget on December 3, 2025, acknowledged this head-on. They managed to reduce the property tax increase from a proposed 3.6% to a more manageable 1.64% by leveraging $50 million in investment income and scrapping a planned tax shift. For the typical homeowner, that translates to an estimated $4.50 more per month in property taxes, plus another $5.29 for utilities. While any increase stings, this intervention shows city leaders are feeling the heat and working to keep household budgets from boiling over.
The Flip Side: Hurdles on the Horizon
But it's not all sunshine and Plus 15 walks. There are genuine challenges that could temper this optimism. For one, flat capital spending in the oil and gas sector due to lower prices highlights a critical need for private investment beyond our traditional strengths. Our macro-economic models are "begging for more investment," as one analyst put it, struggling to find diverse growth sources without it.
Even as economic uncertainty has dipped, global trade dynamics remain a wild card, especially with the U.S. Federal Reserve navigating a tricky "stagflation-lite" scenario and facing potential political shifts in its leadership. Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem, while acknowledging some economic resiliency, has been quick to remind us of "structural challenges." He’s cautioned against getting ahead of ourselves, emphasizing that while near-term GDP dynamics might shift, the fundamental moderate pace of growth and sticky inflation remain. This means Calgary, and Canada, can't just rely on central banks to do the heavy lifting; the onus is on us to strategically execute on big-ticket projects and diversification efforts.
The Bottom Line: Seizing Our Shot
Alberta's economy is truly finding its footing after a brutal decade, outpacing the country with strong growth prospects. For Calgarians, this means a more dynamic job market and a housing sector moving towards rebalancing, even if the road there is uneven across property types. But the defining question for 2026 isn't just about growth; it's about equitable growth. How do we ensure this economic upswing translates into tangible relief for everyday household budgets? How do we accelerate private investment, especially into diversified sectors, to fortify our long-term stability?
This is our moment. We have an opportunity to move beyond just weathering the storm to truly building a resilient, affordable, and thriving Calgary. The stage is set. Let's execute.
