Calgary's Crosscurrents: Growth on the Horizon, But Your Wallet's Still Drowning

Calgary's Crosscurrents: Growth on the Horizon, But Your Wallet's Still Drowning

Hold onto your cowboy hats, Calgarians. ATB Financial’s latest Alberta Economic Outlook, dubbed “The Twenty-Four,” paints a picture of resilient provincial growth in 2026 and 2027, projecting Alberta to once again outpace the national economy. We're talking 2.1% growth next year, climbing to 2.4% in 2027, leaving Canada's 1.6% and 1.8% in the dust. The buzz is about building big, exporting far, and a rebalancing labour market as the unemployment rate nudges lower. Sounds great on paper, right? But out here, on the C-Train and in the grocery aisles, the daily reality often feels like a different forecast.

What This Means for You

While the provincial numbers offer a glimmer of hope, particularly with job growth recently surging after a summer lull, the impact on your pocketbook remains front and centre. The annual unemployment rate is forecast to dip to an average of 6.5% next year from this year's 7.2%, suggesting a slight easing in the job market for Albertans. However, the nagging concern about the rising cost of living isn't just chatter; a recent Abacus Data survey indicated that a whopping 62% of Canadians cited this as one of their top three worries. That’s a sentiment deeply felt right here in Calgary, where rising rental prices and significant hikes on essential items are a constant reminder.

The housing market also shows a mixed bag. While housing starts will remain above historic norms, they're expected to fall from 2025's record levels. Coupled with persistent in-migration, finding an affordable place to live remains a challenge, even if the market shows signs of modest price gains and balance. On a brighter note for your property tax statement, the City of Calgary has acknowledged these pressures, approving a reduced 1.6% property tax increase for 2026. This move, alongside investments in public safety, transit, and housing initiatives, aims to support our rapidly growing population.

For those looking for new opportunities, the federal government has opened a Major Projects Office (MPO) right here in Calgary. Launched in August 2025 under the Building Canada Act, this initiative promises to streamline regulatory approvals and fast-track large-scale infrastructure projects, including Alberta’s "Pipeline Project," with a goal of a maximum two-year timeline. This could mean significant job creation and investment right on our doorstep.

The Flip Side

The ATB outlook also highlights Alberta’s strategic diversification story, with growth projected in sectors like aviation, food processing, tourism, and technology, underpinned by rising oil production and enhanced access to Asian markets. The provincial UCP government is actively pushing an "Alberta Job Growth and Diversification Strategy," targeting these burgeoning sectors with tax credits and a doubled loan capacity for the Indigenous Opportunities Corporation. From a policy standpoint, having the lowest U.S. effective tariff rate among Canadian provinces also gives us an edge.

Yet, the longer-term diversification story still hinges on a provincial economy many argue is overly reliant on oil and gas. A September 2023 poll by the Pembina Institute revealed that 70% of Albertans believe this to be true, with a significant portion of our essential public services tied to the sector's performance. Critics also point to the provincial government’s August 2023 moratorium on renewable energy projects, arguing it potentially jeopardizes thousands of jobs and billions in investment, directly contradicting public support for a stable energy transition away from volatile global oil markets.

The Bottom Line

Calgary and Alberta are undeniably poised for economic growth that outshines much of the country, riding on a wave of energy exports and diversification efforts. However, beneath the impressive GDP numbers and policy announcements, the real story for many Calgarians is the persistent squeeze of the cost of living and the delicate balance between traditional resource reliance and the promise of a truly diversified future. As our city continues to grow, both in population and ambition, how will we ensure that this prosperity is felt not just in the provincial ledgers, but in every household's budget?