Real Estate Report: Inventory Floods the Field: Sellers Lose Leverage as 91 Listings Crush 53 Sales

THE DAILY PULSE

• Daily Sales: 53
• New Listings: 91
• Net Inventory Change: Inventory Growing (+38)
• Today's Average Price: $665,521

Today's average price of $665,521 sits $47,578 above the month-to-date average of $617,943. The premium action is happening in the detached and semi-detached brackets—luxury buyers are still shopping, but the volume play is thin. That $665K average is hiding the reality: most of the market is moving in the $555K median zone, and today's stats are skewed by a handful of high-ticket closings.

The Move: If you're buying entry-level apartments or row homes, you just got handed a gift. With 91 new listings hitting against only 53 sales, sellers in the multi-family space are now competing for *your* attention. Don't chase—let them come to you. If you're eyeing detached homes, move with urgency on well-priced listings, because that segment still has buyers circling.

MONTHLY TRENDS

• Month-to-Date Sales: 1,030 (977 + 53)
• Month-to-Date New Listings: 2,450 (2,359 + 91)
• Total Active Inventory: 4,471

The math is brutal for sellers: 2,450 new listings versus 1,030 sales this month. That's a 2.4:1 ratio—supply is *crushing* demand. Active inventory is up 832 units from January 2025 (3,639 units), and sales are down 421 units from last year's January total of 1,451. This isn't a "seasonal dip." This is structural rebalancing. Multi-family units—apartments and row homes—are flooding the market as 26,000 units under construction hit completion. Meanwhile, detached homes are holding the line, but even they're not immune to the gravitational pull of excess supply.

Sellers: The competition is rising, and the market doesn't care about your 2024 expectations. If you aren't the best-priced listing in your neighbourhood *right now*, you're just decorating someone else's open house. Price it to move, or watch it sit. Apartment and row sellers—you're in a buyer's market. Adjust accordingly or prepare for a long winter.

THE BIGGER PICTURE (YoY)

The year-over-year context confirms the shift: January 2026 sales are down 29% from January 2025 (1,451 sales) and down 38% from January 2024 (1,650 sales). This isn't panic—it's rationalization. After years of white-hot demand fueled by 18,000+ annual interprovincial migrants, Calgary's inflow has collapsed. Projections show net migration dropping to as low as 1,800 by 2030. The Bank of Canada is holding rates at 2.25%, keeping 5-year variable mortgages around 3.4%—stable, but not stimulative. CREB's 2026 forecast calls for a 2.4% sales dip and a 0.9% benchmark price decline citywide, with apartment and row prices under the most pressure, while detached homes remain resilient.

The Outlook: Calgary's real estate war room is transitioning from a seller's siege to a buyer's counter-offensive—especially in multi-family. If you're shopping apartments or rows, you're now the one with the weapon. Detached buyers? You still need to move fast, but the leverage is shifting. Rock & roll.