Calgary Real Estate: BoC Survey Ignites Market Jitters

CALGARY — Calgary homeowners and investors are preparing for fresh market signals as the Bank of Canada gears up to release its Q4 2025 Business Outlook Survey and Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations on January 19. With the policy interest rate steady at a stimulative 2.25%, the focus has shifted to how these reports will influence the central bank's next move.

Interest Rates Steady Amid Economic Shifts

The Bank of Canada’s decision to maintain the policy interest rate at 2.25% reflects a strategy of stability. Historical data from the Business Outlook Survey has shown persistent caution, with Q3 2025 indicators sitting at -2.28. These figures align with Calgary’s specific economic cycle: a projected 2.4% GDP growth for 2026, which is notably outpacing the national average of 1.3%.

However, the local market presents a mixed picture. While the downtown office vacancy rate remains stubborn at roughly 30.4%, the local unemployment rate has improved to 6.8% as of November 2025 (down from earlier highs). Business sentiment, according to Statistics Canada’s Q4 2025 survey, is trending upward with 66.3% of businesses expressing optimism for the year ahead, though 22.9% still cite the cost of borrowing as a hurdle to expansion.

Businesses Watch for "Soft Landing" Signals

While the Calgary Chamber of Commerce and Real Estate Board have not issued formal statements on this specific upcoming survey, there is a palpable sense of anticipation in the business community. Industry leaders are watching closely to see if the survey data supports a "soft landing" narrative, or if inflation expectations are creeping back up.

Calgary Economic Development’s forecast of moderate growth underscores this mood of cautious optimism. The absence of "emergency" rate cuts suggests the Bank views the economy as stable, but local businesses are eager for confirmation that demand will hold up through Q1 2026.

Looking Ahead

The release of the Business Outlook Survey on January 19, 2026, will be a pivotal data point. It serves as the final major piece of evidence before the Bank of Canada’s next rate decision on January 28. Investors and homeowners should watch these results closely; if business sentiment shows unexpected strength, it could cement the case for holding rates steady at 2.25% for the foreseeable future.