Calgary Polling: Poilievre Bleeds Support to Carney

CALGARY, AB — Pierre Poilievre still owns the room in Calgary, but the numbers tell a different story: the Conservative leader is bleeding support to Prime Minister Mark Carney, according to federal polling data released today that shows the political ground shifting beneath one of the CPC's most reliable strongholds.

The newest polling from 338Canada's Philippe Fournier confirms Poilievre retains backing from Conservative Party members in Calgary—historically a fortress for federal Tories—but the momentum has swung toward Carney, whose Liberal government appears to be chipping away at what was once unshakeable territory.

The Friction Point

This isn't about whether Conservatives still matter in Calgary. They do. But the gap is tightening, and in politics, trajectory matters more than position. Poilievre's hold on Calgary's Conservative base remains intact, yet Carney—former Bank of Canada and Bank of England governor turned Prime Minister—is making inroads that would have been unthinkable 12 months ago when Poilievre dominated federal polling across Alberta.

The shift signals potential trouble for the CPC's electoral math. Calgary has consistently elected Conservative MPs, and any erosion here threatens the party's national strategy heading into the next federal campaign cycle.

Who Wins, Who Loses

For Poilievre, the poll is a warning shot. Maintaining support is not the same as growing it, and in a city that should be automatic blue, losing ground to a Liberal Prime Minister forces uncomfortable questions about message, momentum, and whether the Conservative brand is resonating beyond its core.

For Carney, the data represents validation. His transition from technocratic banker to political player has been scrutinized for over a year, with speculation swirling about whether he could translate credibility into votes. This poll suggests he can.

The Money Question

While Fournier's polling doesn't directly involve taxpayer dollars, the implications for campaign financing are immediate. A tightening race in Calgary means both parties will need to allocate resources—staff, ads, ground game—to a region the Conservatives previously took for granted. That reshuffles budgets and changes where national war rooms focus their firepower.

What Comes Next

The polling data is a snapshot, not a sentence. Poilievre's team will need to demonstrate they can reverse the trend, while Carney's Liberals will look to press the advantage in Alberta's largest city. The next round of federal polling will show whether this is a blip or the beginning of a realignment in one of Canada's most Conservative cities.