​The Calgary Advantage is over. Here is the bill.

CALGARY, AB — The fever has broken. After three years of panic buying and price wars, Calgary's housing market just posted its first meaningful retreat: benchmark prices down 4.7% year-over-year to roughly $554,400, with January inventory hitting levels not seen since 2020. Over 4,300 units are sitting on the market. For the first time since the oil boom hangover lifted, buyers have actual leverage.

But here's the paradox keeping half the city awake at night: houses are cheaper, yet nobody feels richer.

The reason is simple math. While asset values cool, the cost of existing in Calgary has gone ballistic. Transportation costs—fuel, insurance, maintenance—are up nearly 52% compared to two years ago. As of January 1, a single adult transit ticket jumped to $4.00, and a monthly pass now runs $126, following a narrow City Council vote pushed through by Ward 10 Councillor Andre Chabot in December. The move generates an additional $4 million annually for Calgary Transit, but it lands squarely on commuters already bleeding cash.

The Grocery Illusion

Inflation is "down" to around 2%. Politicians love that talking point. But it's statistical sleight of hand. Slower price growth doesn't erase the 20%+ cumulative spike in food costs absorbed since 2023. That $200 grocery run isn't a fluke—it's the baseline. The official "Living Wage" for Calgary has hit $26.50/hour, meaning anything less leaves you treading water, not building a life.

The condo market tells the harshest story: prices down nearly 7.8% year-over-year. If you bought at the peak, you're underwater. If you've been renting and saving, you suddenly have options.

The "Good Job" Paradox

Calgary's labour market is a bizarre split screen. The unemployment rate hovers around 6.7%, but employers in three key sectors are practically begging for bodies: Healthcare (RNs, LPNs, support staff), Tech-in-Non-Tech (data scientists and software developers for agriculture and energy companies), and the "Information, Culture and Recreation" sector, which recently posted 7.3% job growth.

The friction? A massive skills mismatch. Thousands hunt for general admin work while specialized roles go unfilled. And if you're under 25, the numbers are brutal: youth unemployment sits at approximately 12.8%, the toughest market in a decade for entry-level opportunities.

The Alberta government's Jobs Strategy, launched in September 2025, promised workforce development programs and immigration pathways. The "Workforce Alberta" job-matching service was supposed to launch in 2026. It's February. The platform remains vaporware.

Who Wins, Who Loses

Winners: First-time buyers with cash on hand, skilled tradespeople, healthcare workers, and creative sector professionals riding the gig economy wave.

Losers: Commuters watching their paycheques evaporate at the gas pump and turnstile, youth scrambling for that first job, homeowners who bought high, and anyone on a stagnant wage trying to cover rising fixed costs.

The Bank of Canada held its overnight rate steady at 2.25% through December 2025 and January 2026, offering no relief on borrowing costs. Meanwhile, Mayor Jeromy Farkas and City Council managed to trim the 2026 property tax increase to around 1.2% for single-family homes—down from an initial 5.8%—by raiding $50 million from reserve funds. It's a short-term patch, not a fix.

The Math That Isn't Mathing

Calgary delivered nearly 28,000 new homes in 2025, more than double the 10-year average, and over 1,800 non-market units received development permits. Supply is flooding the market. Yet affordability remains a mirage for the bottom half of earners because the daily cost structure—transit, fuel, food, insurance—has detached from wage growth.

The provincial government's auto insurance reforms promise up to $400 in annual savings when the "care-first" no-fault system kicks in January 2027. Insurers reported a collective $1.2 billion loss in 2024 and are holding the current 7.5% "good driver" rate cap through 2026. Legal advocacy groups warn the no-fault shift will limit recourse for injured parties. The savings are theoretical. The squeeze is immediate.

The "Calgary Advantage" used to mean cheap housing and high wages. In February 2026, the housing is getting cheaper again. The wages aren't keeping up with the insurance bill.