Calgary Economy: Bank Leaders Sound Alarm on Oil Bets

CALGARY — National Bank's top brass flew into Calgary on January 28, 2026, to deliver an economic reality check to the city's business crowd. President and CEO Laurent Ferreira and Chief Economist Stéfane Marion laid out what's coming for wallets, tax bills, and the bottom line in a province betting heavily on oil staying above US$68 a barrel.

The Bank of Canada's key rate sits at 2.25% following an October 2025 cut. Alberta's inflation clocked in at 2.1% year-over-year in December 2025, slightly cooler than the national 2.4%. That's the backdrop.

Budget Bets on Oil—Again

Finance Minister Nate Horner tabled Alberta's Budget 2025 back in February 2025, projecting a $5.2 billion deficit for the 2025-26 fiscal year. That's a sharp reversal after four straight surpluses. The province is banking on WTI oil hitting US$68/bbl and keeping a $4 billion contingency fund as a cushion. Every $1 swing in oil prices shifts provincial revenues by roughly $750 million.

The budget also introduced a new 8% provincial tax bracket on the first $60,000 of income, which will cost the treasury $1.2 billion in revenue. Translation: less money coming in while expenses pile up.

More People, Tighter Services

Alberta's population cracked 5 million during the 2025 census year, a 2.5% jump. More people means more strain on schools, hospitals, and roads. Calgary City Council approved a 1.6% property tax increase for 2026, a modest bump that won't cover the full cost of growth.

Still, economists see Alberta outpacing the national GDP average in 2026. ATB Financial projects 2.1% growth; RBC says 2.3%. The City of Calgary's Greater Downtown Plan aims to convert empty office towers into residential units, with seven projects slated to finish in 2025.

Energy Superpower Talk

Laurent Ferreira has been pushing Canada to become an "energy superpower" to boost economic sovereignty. That pitch gained traction after a November 2025 federal-provincial Memorandum of Understanding on energy and resources. Whether Ottawa follows through remains an open question.

Opposition Sharpens Knives

The Alberta New Democratic Party, led by Naheed Nenshi, is hammering the United Conservative Party government over affordability. Auto insurance and grocery prices are the main targets. Nenshi's team is betting voters will remember who was in charge when budgets flipped red and living costs climbed.

The economic forecast hinges on global commodity prices, central bank decisions, and how well the province manages its oil-dependent revenues. Policy development and investment will determine whether Alberta's growth projections hold or crack.