Calgary Economic Development: U.S. Trade Deals Plummet to Record Low

CALGARY, AB — The American market just lost its shine. New data released today shows only 24% of Calgary Economic Development-supported trade deals in 2025 went south of the border—the smallest slice on record and a sharp drop from 35% the year before.

The shift isn't about decline. It's about survival. CED-backed companies locked in $60 million in trade revenue through 45 international deals last year—a 500% jump from 2024—by hunting bigger contracts in farther markets. Calgary firms now operate in 21 countries across six continents, a geographic spread that would have seemed absurd three years ago.

The Tariff That Changed Everything

President Trump's February 2025 tariff blitz—25% on most Canadian goods, 10% on energy—forced Calgary businesses to redraw their maps. Prime Minister Mark Carney fired back with counter-tariffs in March, but the damage to cross-border confidence was already done. Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem made it official last month: "The era of rules-based trade with the U.S. is over."

Even former Conservative PM Stephen Harper, no softie on American relations, said publicly that Canada needs to cut the cord on U.S. dependence. When Harper calls for diversification, you know the old playbook is dead.

The New Geography of Money

Alberta's oil sector led the pivot. The Trans Mountain pipeline expansion—operational since May 2024—pushed Canadian crude into Asian markets. By October 2025, Alberta oil shipments to Asia topped US$804 million, creating revenue streams that didn't exist two years ago. China isn't just buying our energy anymore; it's becoming a structural pillar.

But it's not just oil. Calgary tech, ag-tech, and manufacturing firms are signing deals in markets they couldn't find on a map five years ago. The federal government threw $159 million over three years at trade-financing programs to grease the wheels. Ottawa's new trade diversification strategy, launched last fall, explicitly targets growth outside North America.

What This Means for Your Wallet

If you work in a sector that historically depended on U.S. buyers—manufacturing, logistics, certain ag segments—the transition is real and ongoing. Some jobs shifted. Some disappeared. But the $60 million in new trade revenue isn't abstract; it's paychecks, expansions, and R&D budgets at firms that adapted fast.

Alberta's provincial deficit hit $6.4 billion as of the last quarterly update in November, partly because trade uncertainty hammered export numbers. Provincial merchandise exports dropped 5.2% year-over-year in November 2025. The diversification play is about long-term resilience, but short-term, it's expensive and messy.

The Bigger Picture

Calgary Economic Development President and CEO Brad Parry is steering the ship locally, while Alberta's Minister of Jobs, Economy, Trade and Immigration Joseph Schow manages the provincial strategy. Both are betting that 2025's tariff chaos was the painful birth of a more stable, globally integrated Alberta economy.

The CUSMA/USMCA trade agreement faces a joint review in July. If Trump's protectionist streak continues—and there's zero indication it won't—expect the U.S. market share for Calgary deals to drop even further this year. The 24% figure isn't a floor. It's a marker on the way down.

The next CED quarterly trade report drops in May. That's when we'll see if today's diversification bet is paying off or just buying time.