Calgary Business Optimism: Cost Pressures Crush Confidence

CALGARY — Today, Calgary businesses are grappling with a paradox. Despite reporting fewer operational pressures related to labour and supply chains in the fourth quarter of 2025, business optimism has sharply declined, reaching its lowest point in three years. This decline in confidence comes as cost-related obstacles remain the top concern for 58% of businesses, unchanged from the previous quarter, according to data released by the Calgary Chamber of Commerce.

The Deeper Context

The drop in business optimism is significant, falling to 54% in Q4 2025 from 80% in Q1, while pessimism rose to 27%. This decline reflects a broader economic trend within Calgary, where high inflation, interest rates, and geopolitical uncertainties, such as U.S. tariffs and the CUSMA renegotiation, continue to exert pressure. Notably, Calgary businesses have experienced a reduction in labour and supply chain pressures, with only 40% expecting supply chain issues to worsen, a drop of 27 points since Q1 2025. Despite these improvements, the persistence of cost obstacles illustrates a chronic issue rather than a new crisis, aligning with national trends where 61.2% of Canadian businesses anticipate cost challenges. The city's economic landscape is also shaped by relevant bylaws, including the City of Calgary's Business Licence Bylaw 32M98 and the Off-site Levies Bylaw, which impact infrastructure funding and service quality.

The Critics & Costs

Critics point to the unchanged cost-related obstacles as a significant barrier to business confidence. The Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB) highlights that while long-term confidence among small businesses in Alberta improved to 60 in December 2025, short-term confidence remains low at 48.6 due to insufficient demand. Key players like Deborah Yedlin, President & CEO of the Calgary Chamber of Commerce, suggest that reducing costs and eliminating trade and regulatory barriers could mitigate these challenges. However, without addressing these fundamental issues, businesses may continue to face financial strains that hinder their growth and contribution to the local economy.

Looking forward, stakeholders are calling for strategic interventions to bolster business confidence and drive economic recovery. As Calgary navigates these economic challenges, future discussions and policy adjustments will be crucial in shaping a more optimistic business environment.