Alberta Wheat Prices: Record Harvests Yield Shrinking Returns

CALGARY, AB — Alberta farmers reaped record wheat harvests in 2025, but the paycheque told a different story: wheat prices hit $276 per tonne in December, down 7% year-over-year and marking the 34th consecutive month of decline. The gap between bumper crops and shrinking returns is squeezing the bottom line across the province's agricultural heartland.

ATB Economics released its latest analysis today, painting a picture of agricultural abundance colliding with global oversupply. Author Rob Roach notes that while Alberta's three largest crops—wheat, canola, and barley—posted production well above five-year averages, the cash farmers are seeing per tonne has steadily eroded since the 2022 commodity spike when wheat hit $521 per tonne.

The Global Glut

The problem isn't local—it's planetary. Major wheat-producing nations posted strong harvests, flooding global markets and pushing stocks-to-use ratios to levels that keep buyers comfortable and sellers nervous. The 2025 average wheat price clocked in 6% below 2024 levels, and ATB's outlook for 2026 calls for continued downward pressure.

Canola fared marginally better. Despite Chinese tariffs that torpedoed Canadian exports to China over the past year, domestic processing capacity expansion provided a floor. The annual average canola price in 2025 ticked up 2% from 2024, staying range-bound. A recent deal with China to ease tariff friction offers a glimmer of relief, but strong global supplies mean 2026 could still trend softer.

Barley followed the same arc: prices off 2% on average in 2025 compared to the prior year, with the outlook muted by ample supply.

The Cattle Exception

Cattle prices broke the mold—and records—in 2025. Tight supply and robust demand sent prices soaring, a trend expected to persist as herd rebuilding takes time. But ATB beef expert Lee Irvine issued a caution today: "Several commentators are starting to suggest that economic pressure could see consumers shifting purchasing habits to lower cost proteins." Translation: if wallets tighten, steak gets swapped for chicken.

What It Means

For Alberta's agricultural sector, the math is stark. Higher yields don't guarantee higher income when global markets are saturated. Farmers banked strong production numbers in 2025 but faced a pricing environment that chipped away at profitability. The canola-China détente and cattle price strength offer pockets of optimism, but the broader crop price trend points to margin compression heading into the new year.

The interplay between supply, demand, and consumer spending patterns will determine whether 2026 brings stabilization or further squeeze. For now, Alberta farmers are harvesting plenty—they're just getting paid less for it.