Alberta Sovereignty: Support Plummets Amid Polling Results

CALGARY, AB — The sovereignty fire isn't catching. A new poll released today shows that the dream of an independent Alberta remains exactly that—a dream confined to a small, noisy corner of the province, not a groundswell of popular revolt.

The Angus Reid Institute's data, part one of a three-part series on Canada's unity crisis, lands with a thud for separatists: Only 8% of Albertans would "definitely" vote to leave Canada if a referendum happened today. Add in the "leaners" and you get to 29%. Meanwhile, 65% would vote to stay, with 57% rock-solid in that choice.

Translation: The separatists are getting crushed in their own backyard.

The Premier's Problem

Premier Danielle Smith, who has walked a tightrope between autonomy and outright separation, is paying the price for the ambiguity. Today's numbers show 54% of Albertans disapprove of how she's handled the sovereignty issue. That's a failing grade in any political playbook.

Prime Minister Mark Carney, by contrast, pulls a 44% approval rating for his approach—modest, but enough to claim he's holding the center while the UCP fractures on the right.

The Argument Breakdown

The poll dug into why people feel the way they do, and the results expose two Albertas living in parallel universes:

For the "definite stay" crowd (57%): Nearly all of them (92%) say their Canadian identity matters. Another 93% point to the landlocked reality—Alberta can't move oil without the rest of Canada. These aren't abstract concerns; they're logistical deal-breakers.

For the "lean stay" voters (8%): They're torn. Yes, 88% of them find the argument that "Alberta gives more than it gets" convincing. But they still can't pull the trigger on leaving, likely because the practical risks (lost federal transfers, infrastructure costs, tidewater access) outweigh the grievance.

For the "leave" voters (8% definite, 21% leaning): It's a near-religious conviction. A staggering 98% of "definite leave" voters say Alberta needs to free itself from "harmful federal policies." Another 97% want total control of provincial resources. The problem? They're preaching to a choir that's barely filling the pews.

The Information War

Here's where it gets interesting: The two sides aren't even reading the same news. Stay voters get their information from mainstream media (71%) and social media (45%). Leave voters are tuned into alternative media (50%) and word-of-mouth from friends and family (45%).

In other words, this isn't just a political divide—it's an information silo. And that makes consensus nearly impossible.

The Exit Plan

If Alberta did somehow vote to leave, the "stay" voters have already made their choice: 74% say they'd pack up and move elsewhere in Canada. Only 23% would stick around in a newly independent Alberta.

That's not a vote of confidence. That's a warning shot: Separation wouldn't just cost Alberta its place in Confederation—it would cost the province a massive chunk of its population.

The Bigger Picture

This poll is part of a three-part series on separatism in Canada, with Alberta as the opening act. The next installments will examine Quebec and the broader national unity question. But today's numbers make one thing clear: In Alberta, the sovereignty spark hasn't ignited. It's flickering in the wind, barely visible, and running out of oxygen.

The separatists have the petition. They have the headlines. What they don't have is the votes.