Alberta Poll: Majority Rejects Separation from Canada

CALGARY, AB — The math just shifted on Alberta's separatist fever dream. A new poll from the Angus Reid Institute, released February 9, shows 57% of Albertans would vote to stay in Canada if a referendum landed on their doorstep tomorrow. Only 29% would pull the ripcord on Confederation. That's a 28-point gap—and a steep drop from the 36% who flirted with separation in May 2025.

The numbers hit like cold water on the Alberta Prosperity Project's signature drive. The APP—led by businessman Mitch Sylvestre—has been grinding since January to collect 177,732 signatures by May to force a provincewide vote on independence. They've been pitching a $500 billion line of credit from the U.S. Treasury and a future outside Ottawa's grip. But if this poll holds, they're selling a product two-thirds of the province doesn't want.

The UCP Base Is Splitting

Here's where it gets messy: Among United Conservative Party voters—Premier Danielle Smith's own coalition—support for leaving Canada dropped from 65% last May to 57% now. That's still a majority, but it's bleeding. The premier has spent the last year wielding the Alberta Sovereignty Act like a legal cattle prod, demanding provincial control over judicial appointments and threatening to withhold court funding if Ottawa doesn't bend. But her base is cooling on the nuclear option.

Smith has never explicitly endorsed separation. She calls it "a strong Alberta within a united Canada." But she's also lowered the bar for citizen-led referendums—Bill 54, passed in May 2025, cut the signature threshold to just 10% of eligible voters. That's the legal fuel the APP is running on right now.

The Money Behind the Noise

Context matters: Alberta hasn't seen an equalization cheque since the 1960s. Between 2007 and 2022, the province sent a net $244.6 billion more to Ottawa than it got back. That's the resentment the separatists are mining. But the counter-pitch is simple: Would you trade stable federal transfer programs, trade access, and treaty obligations for a shot at going solo?

Former Progressive Conservative MLA Thomas Lukaszuk already collected 438,568 signatures on a pro-Canada counter-petition by December 1, 2025. That's more than double what the APP needs—and it landed in the legislature months ago.

The Federal Front

Prime Minister Mark Carney's Liberal government has stayed quiet on the poll, but the tension is live. Premier Smith sent Carney a letter February 3 demanding provincial input on judicial appointments. Other premiers—Ontario's Doug Ford, B.C.'s David Eby—have publicly torched the APP's U.S. meetings as "treasonous." First Nations leaders, including Grand Chief Trevor Mercredi of Treaty 8, have made it clear: Treaties are with the Crown, not the province. Separation without consultation is unconstitutional.

What Happens Next

The APP has until May to hit its signature target. If they do, the province is legally bound to hold a referendum. But the poll suggests they're pushing a boulder uphill. The vote may happen anyway—Alberta's new referendum rules make it easier than ever to trigger one. Whether the public actually wants it is another question entirely.

Smith's government hasn't commented on the Angus Reid numbers. The premier's next judicial funding threat is pending federal response. The signature count is live, but Elections Alberta hasn't released an official tally.