Alberta Prosperity Project: Independence Petition Ignites Debate

CALGARY — Clipboard warriors are fanning out across Alberta with a simple pitch: sign here to blow up Canada. The Alberta Prosperity Project needs 177,732 valid signatures by May 2, 2026 to force a referendum on independence. They started collecting January 3.

Premier Danielle Smith says she's not a separatist. She prefers what she calls "a sovereign Alberta within a united Canada." But she also promised in May 2025 that if the petition hits its number, she'll hold the vote.

The province made sure this could happen. In December 2025, a Court of King's Bench judge ruled the referendum question unconstitutional. The government responded by passing Bill 14, which effectively erased that ruling. The petition rolled forward.

The Sales Pitch: No More Income Tax

The APP released a report in July 2025 called "The Value of Freedom." It claims independence would produce annual surpluses between $23.6 billion and $45.5 billion. Income taxes? Gone, they say.

Here's the catch: a big chunk of those claimed savings comes from ditching equalization payments. Alberta doesn't receive equalization payments. It does get federal transfers like the Canada Health Transfer and Canada Social Transfer. The provincial budget for 2025-26 projects a $5.2 billion deficit.

The APP is led by CEO Mitch Sylvestre and lawyer Jeffrey Rath. Their math has drawn fire.

The Price Tag No One's Written

Dr. Trevor Tombe at the University of Calgary's School of Public Policy ran different numbers. He estimates even a modest 5% increase in trade costs would shrink Alberta's economy by about 4%—roughly $20 billion in lost GDP in 2026 alone.

Then there's the grocery list of things an independent Alberta would need to build from scratch: a military, intelligence services, border control, a currency, pension systems, employment insurance, food and drug regulation, aviation safety, telecom rules, environmental standards, and a national tax agency.

No one has presented a costed plan for any of this.

Alberta would also need to keep its oil and gas moving through British Columbia ports. That means renegotiating trade deals, establishing credit on international markets, and taking on a share of Canada's national debt.

The Counter-Punch

A rival petition launched in late 2025. Called "Alberta Forever Canada," it was started by former PC cabinet minister Thomas Lukaszuk and also approved by Elections Alberta. The Alberta NDP, led by Naheed Nenshi, opposes separation outright.

A First Nation is seeking an urgent injunction to halt the petition process, arguing it violates Indigenous treaty rights. Meanwhile, reports suggest some Alberta separatist groups are being monitored as potential conduits for foreign interference aimed at destabilizing Canada.

What the Law Says

The Supreme Court of Canada settled this framework during the Quebec secession fight. A province can't unilaterally leave. But a clear majority on a clear question creates a legal duty to negotiate.

Canada's Clarity Act spells out how Parliament decides whether a referendum question and result are clear enough to trigger talks.

Signature collection runs until May 2, 2026. If the APP gets its numbers, the referendum happens. What comes after that is anyone's guess.