Alberta Jobs: Oil Boom Masks 50,000 Worker Layoffs

CALGARY, AB — Fifty thousand oil and gas workers have been made redundant in Alberta over the past decade, according to data reported today by The Alberta Worker—a stark reminder that the province's energy boom has quietly hollowed out its own workforce even as production hits record highs.

The figure, published February 4, lands like a gut punch in a province still processing 10,000 jobs slashed in 2025 alone. That culling happened while oil output reached a milestone 4.3 million barrels per day in May. The math is brutal: more oil, fewer paycheques.

The Productivity Paradox

Economists have a term for this—"doing more with less." Mark Parsons, Chief Economist at ATB Financial, used those exact words last year when the 2025 job losses first surfaced. Joseph Marchand at the University of Alberta's Labour Market Research Centre chalked it up to increased productivity. But for the 50,000 workers who've been shown the door since 2016, productivity is just a polite way of saying "you're obsolete."

Imperial Oil crystallized the trend in September 2025, announcing 900 layoffs by 2027—most in Calgary—citing technology upgrades and soft prices. The company framed it as part of a "global trend." The workers cleaning out their desks would call it something else.

The Money Trail

Premier Danielle Smith's UCP government has bet big on diversification to cushion the blow. The Alberta Jobs Strategy 2025-2030, launched in September, includes $102.4 million over three years for apprenticeships and career training. Budget 2025 threw $500 million at hydrogen and carbon capture, plus $150 million for small businesses going green.

But those investments are racing against a brutal clock. The same budget projected a worst-case scenario—tied to potential U.S. tariffs—of 41,000 jobs lost by 2027. The forecast unemployment rate for 2026 sits at 6.9%, down slightly from 2025's 7.4%, but still elevated for a province that sold itself on energy wealth.

Non-renewable resource revenue is sliding too: $15.4 billion forecasted for 2025-26, down $1.7 billion from earlier estimates. WTI crude prices averaged US$61.50 per barrel in the latest government forecast—well below the US$68 assumption when the budget dropped.

The Friction Point

Smith has repeatedly blamed federal decisions for the industry's troubles, calling for pipeline expansion and ramped-up production. Rural Municipalities of Alberta and Alberta Municipalities echoed those concerns in March 2025, warning of economic instability from tariff threats.

The Pembina Institute offered a different script in its August 2025 "Drilling Down" report, arguing clean energy jobs could replace lost oil and gas positions. Whether that's a lifeline or wishful thinking depends on who you ask—and how fast those green jobs actually materialize.

In January 2026, Natural Resources Canada kicked in nearly $3 million for Alberta grid reliability projects, including $1.5 million to ENMAX and $532,770 to EPCOR. It's a start, but a far cry from the structural shift needed to absorb 50,000 displaced workers.

What Happens Next

The provincial government's diversification push will face its first real stress test in the coming months as the 2026-27 budget cycle begins. With a $5.2 billion deficit already locked in for 2025-26, and deficits projected at $2.4 billion in 2026-27 and $2 billion in 2027-28, the room to maneuver is shrinking.

For now, Alberta's energy sector continues its high-wire act: record production, collapsing headcount, and a workforce increasingly split between those riding automation into the future and those left holding pink slips from the past.