Alberta Housing Starts: Forecast Shows Cooldown Amid Record Growth

CALGARY, AB — Alberta's housing construction boom is tapping the brakes. ATB Economics forecasts 45,000 housing starts for the province in 2026, a notable drop from 2025's record-shattering 54,900 units but still above the 10-year trend.

Calgary and Edmonton Face Tempered Projections

The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) projects Calgary housing starts between 23,000 and 30,500 units in 2026, compared to 27,684 in 2025. Edmonton's range sits at 16,500 to 24,500, down from 21,337 last year.

CMHC Deputy Chief Economist Kevin Hughes points to slower population growth, job market fluctuations, and the surge of new supply over the past two years as primary factors cooling demand.

Policy Uncertainty Looms

Developers face added uncertainty in Calgary, where City Council voted 13-2 in December 2025 to initiate repealing its blanket rezoning policy—a move that could jeopardize up to $861 million in federal Housing Accelerator Fund dollars.

CMHC notes developers "will proceed cautiously, prioritizing the completion of existing projects as inventories rise" while navigating potential land use approval changes.

Alberta Bucks National Trend

While both cities see declines, their projected starts remain above historical averages—a stark contrast to Ontario's "near 2-decade lows" and British Columbia's "historically weak levels" forecast by CMHC.

Alberta's population surpassed 5 million in mid-2025, growing 1.7% from Q4 2024 to Q4 2025. That demographic momentum, even if slowing, continues to differentiate the province from struggling markets elsewhere.

Edmonton's Affordability Edge

CMHC highlights Edmonton's "relatively affordable" homeownership as a stabilizing factor. Ground-oriented housing will dominate new construction, while purpose-built rental apartment projects are expected to remain steady.

The cooldown signals a market recalibration rather than collapse—construction activity normalizing after unprecedented growth, but still meeting demand driven by Alberta's population influx.