Alberta Retail Spending: Car Sales Surge Amid Economic Jitters

ALBERTA — Albertans opened their wallets 4.7% wider from January to November 2025 compared to last year, and half that cash went straight into car dealerships. The rest? Bars and restaurants, where the survival game is getting ugly.

ATB Economics crunched the StatsCan numbers and found a retail spending story with two main characters: shiny new trucks and the places serving overpriced nachos.

The Parking Lot Wins

New motor vehicle sales jumped 5.9% year-to-date, blowing past pre-pandemic levels and accounting for nearly half the retail gain. November saw a particularly sharp spike—sales climbed 2.2% above the previous January peak. Buyers flooded showrooms in late 2024 and early 2025, cooled off by summer, then came roaring back last month.

Translation: Albertans love their rides more than economic dread.

Restaurants Eat the Cost

Food services and drinking places posted a 5.9% revenue bump, but here's the catch—only 1.2% came from price hikes. The rest is volume. Meanwhile, grocery stores jacked prices up 3.8%. That gap tells you everything: restaurants are swallowing costs they can't pass on without emptying their tables.

The math gets darker. An estimated 41% of Canadian restaurants are scraping by at or below their profit margin. They're packed, but broke.

The Gas Station Shrug

One retail category that didn't party? Gas stations. Alberta's decision to axe the provincial consumer carbon tax in 2025 pulled down pump revenues, making it one of the rare losers in an otherwise hot year.

The Brake Check Ahead

ATB Economics sees the spending spree holding at roughly 2.5% growth through 2026—same tempo as this year. Lower interest rates and equity gains are propping things up, but the headwinds are real: slower population growth, mortgage renewals hitting at higher rates, and the usual geopolitical chaos.

And lurking in the fine print: U.S. tariffs on the auto sector and the looming (but limited) threat of Chinese electric vehicles crashing the party.

For now, Albertans are still buying. The question is how long before the credit card starts to smoke.