Alberta Economy: Retail Boom Widens Gap with B.C.

EDMONTON — Canada's two western provinces are living in separate economic universes right now, and the gap is only getting wider.

While Prime Minister Mark Carney stood at Davos this week calling the global economy a "rupture" where the "old order is not coming back," back home the proof was already showing up in the cash registers. Alberta's retail sales exploded 3.7% in November, more than triple the national pace. British Columbia's economy? Stalled out like a '72 Buick on the side of the highway.

ATB Economics dropped a report January 23, 2026 that reads like a tale of two provinces. Alberta is printing money—forecasters expect retail to climb another 4.2% this year. Meanwhile, B.C. is watching its population shrink, its unemployment tick up to 6.2%, and its residents pack U-Hauls headed east. For three straight years, more people have left B.C. for Alberta than the other way around. That's a reversal of a decades-long migration pattern, and it comes down to one word: affordability.

The Squeeze Play

British Columbia's troubles aren't a mystery. Washington slapped a 45% tariff on softwood lumber. The big-ticket infrastructure jobs—Trans Mountain, Site C Dam—are done, which means the construction crews have moved on. Population growth crashed from 2.9% in 2023 to 0.5% last year. The province's own government is now forecasting a 0.3% population drop for 2026. Real GDP growth limped in at 1.7% in 2025 and is expected to slow to 1.5% this year.

Carney's Davos pitch was all about "strategic autonomy"—building domestic strength and spreading trade bets beyond the usual suspects. That's the play on paper. But in B.C., the economic headwinds aren't theoretical. They're showing up in the job numbers and the for-sale signs.

The Long Game

British Columbia isn't going down without swinging. LNG Canada's Phase 1 started shipping in June 2025. Svante opened a commercial-scale carbon capture gigafactory in May. The Ridley Island Energy Export facility should fire up by late 2026, and the Eskay Creek Gold-Silver Project is aiming for production in the first half of 2027.

These aren't quick fixes. They're multi-year bets that the resource economy can carry the province through the rough patch. Whether they land in time to stop the bleeding is the question nobody's answering yet.

For now, the economic map is clear. Alberta's tills are ringing. B.C.'s phone is going to voicemail. And the national retail sales bump of 1.3% in November tells you which province is doing the heavy lifting.